President Donald Trump’s campaign pledge to “drain the swamp” may see its greatest impact in an unexpected place — the GOP. Republicans are revolving out the door of the Trump administration and announcing plans to not seek re-election in record numbers.
House Speaker Paul Ryan announced Wednesday that he will not seek re-election in 2018, adding his name to the 24 House Republican retirements already announced this election season, which is the most in one congressional cycle dating back to 1973, according to Roll Call. Also, four Republican Senators have announced that they will not seek re-election in 2018.
The number of people in high-profile administration positions being forced out or fired, continues to rise. On March 28, Trump announced via Twitter that he planned to replace David J. Shulkin, the secretary of veterans affairs, with his White House physician, Dr. Ronny L. Jackson, a rear admiral in the Navy. Less than a week earlier, Trump decided to replace Lt. Gen. H. R. McMaster, national security adviser, with John R. Bolton. Thomas P. Bossert, White House homeland security adviser, was fired Tuesday by Bolton.
Those changes come on the heels of Trump’s dismissal of Secretary of State Rex W. Tillerson, also via Twitter in mid-March. Close to 30 key people have been ousted from the administration over the past 14 months.
The Trump administration’s 34 percent turnover rate is much higher than that of any other administration in the past 40 years, which is as far back as her analysis goes, according to Kathryn Dunn-Tenpas, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution who tracks White House turnover rates. She has noted that Trump’s first-year turnover rate is three times higher than both Barack Obama’s 9 percent and Bill Clinton’s 11. President George W. Bush had a rate of only 6 percent.
Back to those mid-term elections. Democrats need 23 seats to win back control of the House. In the Senate, Republicans are defending nine seats while Democrats have 24 in play. Democrats are hoping the high number opting not to seek re-election means victory for them in November. The party is looking for a repeat of Democrat Conor Lamb’s upset victory in Pennsylvania’s 18th Congressional District. Trump carried the district by nearly 20 points in the 2016 presidential election and the House seat had been held by Republican Tim Murphy (who resigned after admitting an extramarital affair) since 2003.
We know those leaving the administration have displeased Trump in some way, but what about those leaving elected positions? Are they tired of fighting? Seeking other offices? Worried about the shifting political winds?
For Ryan, it is a calculated move. He reluctantly took the Speaker of the House job back in 2015 after John Boehner quit. He managed to unite his party to produce last year’s tax reform legislation and restored defense funding in this year’s budget compromise. And he’s leaving on his own terms, which hasn’t been typical of speakers in recent years.
Ryan pointed to his accomplishments during last week’s announcement and said he wanted to devote more time to his wife and teenage children. Excellent choice. People seldom regret spending time with family. They do, however, regret poor political associations. Ryan’s ideology and Trump’s are not the same. Indecision and gridlock will continue to plague politicians and frustrate voters. Ryan is young — and wise enough — to exit and reemerge when the time is right.
In the meantime, keep an eye on the Beltway swamp and the big mosquito. It is an ecosystem in flux.
Shea Wilson is the former managing editor of the El Dorado News-Times. E-mail her at [email protected]. Follow her on Twitter @SheaWilson7.