Climate models predicting a series of droughts over the next two decades are receiving widespread support in the scientific community which admits the future looks grim in regards to aridity and global warming, according to a study published in National Climate Change.
Washington Post does a good job of breaking down the study’s jargon, explaining that a statistical model based on sea surface temperatures has predicted past droughts including the Dust Bowl of the 1930s. That same model now predicts a series of droughts over the next 20 years in the United States.
Global warming will only exacerbate the arid conditions, said Aiguo Dai, the study’s author, who was unsurprised by drought conditions across much of the country in 2012.
“We can now be more confident that the models are correct,” Dai said, “but unfortunately, their predictions are dire.”
In the United States, the droughts can be attributed to a cold cycle in the eastern part of the Pacific Ocean which partially restricts precipitation, especially over the western portion of the country, according to the study.
Additional concern is possible future dryness in South America, southern Europe and Africa, Dai wrote.